It is clear that artificial intelligence is developing at an incredible pace. Right now, algorithms all over the world are writing code to improve themselves. And while we marvel at the speed of machine learning innovation, a technology singularity may be closer than we ever imagined.
That’s according to AI translation start-up, Translated, which has been studying how artificial intelligence approaches language models, to predict how fast we’re hurtling towards a technical singularity (Translated (opens in new tab)through Popular mechanics (opens in new tab)).
So we’re all on the same page, a technology singularity describes the moment when technology begins to replicate itself out of control. It’s the point where sci-fi writers and scientists conclude that humanity will essentially become obsolete. In the same way that a black hole’s event horizon obscures a singularity in physics, it’s notoriously difficult to predict when and where the exact technological singularity might occur, or even what it might look like.
Watching AI evolve (opens in new tab) the past year has been a rollercoaster, with the biggest fear being the displacement of workers in countless sectors. When it comes to translation, the challenge is huge, even for the best machine learning algorithms out there.
We are approaching singularity in AI.
Translated CEO Marco Trombetti
After acknowledging that fact, Translated began tracking and measuring the rate at which their translation algorithm’s Time to Edit (TTE) metric has improved over an eight-year period. TTE is essentially the time it takes for a human editor to correct the AI’s translations. By comparing the TTE of its algorithm to that of human translation, the company noticed that the gap is slowly closing.
With that trend in mind, the company concludes that since AI is likely to match the level of a human translator within a decade, the technology singularity is likely to follow suit.
“We all understand that we are approaching singularity in AI,” said Translated CEO Marco Trombetti. “For the first time, we’ve been able to quantify the speed at which we’re moving towards it.”
Although it is true that modern technology is seriously engaged Torment Nexus (opens in new tab) territory, there are thousands of facets to a technology singularity to consider. As such, it is difficult to say whether improvements in language models can predict movement beyond the AI event horizon.
It is quite another matter whether the ability to understand human language is an indicator of intelligence – I know plenty of people who seem to understand language but are otherwise devoid of each signs of intelligence.